Hungary's voters have spoken, and their message is clear: they want to stay in the European Union. This is a significant shift in sentiment, especially given the years of relentless EU-bashing by the country's nationalist, illiberal prime minister, Viktor Orbán. With his consistent portrayal of the EU as an enemy, Orbán has been in power for 16 years, but now, it seems, the tide has turned.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank's recent poll reveals a surprising reality. A staggering 77% of voters support EU membership, and three-quarters trust the bloc. Even more intriguing, 68% want a change in Hungary's engagement with the EU. This indicates a desire for a recalibration of the country's relationship with the bloc, one that Orbán's divisive policies have seemingly failed to address.
Orbán's battles with Brussels over justice, migration, LGBTQ+ rights, and aid for Ukraine have been well-documented. His consistent blocking of sanctions against Russia has further strained relations. The EU has responded by suspending billions of euros in funding, highlighting the tension between the two entities. With Orbán's status as a far-right icon in Europe, the upcoming election is of utmost importance to the bloc.
The poll's findings are particularly interesting when considering the political landscape. While the desire for change was strongest among supporters of Péter Magyar, the centre-right challenger, nearly half of Orbán's Fidesz voters also wanted a reset. This suggests a growing dissatisfaction within Orbán's own party, indicating a potential shift in the political spectrum.
The survey also revealed a different Hungary from the one Orbán sells to Europe. It showed that most Hungarians do not share their prime minister's negative view of the EU. Instead, they want a more cooperative and constructive relationship. This is evident in the poll's findings, where majorities of Fidesz voters supported continued EU membership and trusted the bloc. Even a large minority backed Hungary joining the euro, indicating a desire for economic integration.
However, the poll also highlighted the importance of domestic issues. When asked about their main reasons for voting, 40% of Tisza voters cited a desire for change, while 27% of Fidesz voters mentioned peace and security. When it comes to the most pressing issues, Tisza voters focused on corruption, governance, public services, and the cost of living, while Fidesz voters prioritized energy security and the cost of living.
The survey's findings have significant implications for the future of Hungary's relationship with the EU. While a change in government may lead to a more cooperative stance towards Brussels, the authors caution that there are limits to how constructive a foreign policy partner Hungary could become, especially on Ukraine. The deep splits in public opinion on foreign policy questions, such as perceptions of Russia, suggest that any new government will need to carefully navigate these complex issues.
In conclusion, the poll's results demonstrate a clear desire for change in Hungary's approach to the EU. With Orbán's divisive policies and negative portrayal of the bloc, it is no surprise that voters are seeking a different path. The next government will need to address both domestic and international concerns, and the EU will need to adapt to this new reality. The future of Hungary's relationship with the bloc hangs in the balance, and the outcome will have significant implications for the region's political landscape.
